## Title: Adaptive forest management across diverse forest ownerships in southeastern Vermont, USA
- PRESENTATION OUTLINE: 
      + Research Objectives 
      + Introduction 
      + Research Questions
      + Study Area 
      + Methods  
      + Use of R in landscape initialization 
      + Questions & Discussion 
      
## RESEARCH OBJECTIVES 
- Simulate forest change over time in response to projected climate change and under alternative forest management regimes.

- Use forest landscape simulation modeling (LANDIS-II) to evaluate forest management decisions within a 10,000-acre forested landscape of mixed-ownership in southeastern Vermont, USA. 

## INTRODUCTION 
- GLOBAL CHANGE: represents a major challenge for forest resources managers 

  + Climate change impacts – Increased temp., precip., drought, extreme weather event, 
  
  + Shifting disturbance regimes
  
  + Shifts in suitable habitat 
  
  + Increased threats from pest/pathogen and invasive species
  
  + Economic uncertainty
  
  + Societal drivers – land use

## INTRODUCTION 

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## INTRODUCTION 

+ Increasing uncertainty around future impacts on forest ecosystems 

- Tool-box approach 

    - Use of traditional and novel approaches 
employ an iterative and adaptive process

+ *Utilize new tools*: Landscape simulation models 

## RESEARCH QUESTIONS 

 1. How does species composition change within the landscape over time under two climate scenarios and three management regimes?


 2. How do differences in landowner behavior in regards to application of adaptive measures influence landscape-level resilience to climate change?

## STUDY AREA 

+ Southeastern Vermont, USA 

+ 10,000 Acre (4,047 Hectare) Landscape

+ Centered on Marsh-Billings-Rockefeller National Historical Park – 500 acres 

## STUDY AREA 

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## METHODS 

- Use landscape simulation model to analyze change in species composition over time under two climate change scenarios and three management regimes 

- LANDIS-II (v6.0) is a spatially explicit forest landscape       + simulation model
      + simulates successional dynamics, seed dispersal, regeneration, and response to disturbances such as windthrow and harvesting
      + 100 year simulation at 30x30m resolution 
- LANDIS -> Output: 
      + Total above ground biomass (AGB)/species at each time step
      + From AGB ->  
        - Relative importance (Curtis)
        - Spp. diversity 
        - Functional diversity 


## METHODS - LANDIS-II

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## MODEL ADVANTAGES AND LIMITATIONS 
  + ADVANTAGES 
      - Simulate forest succession overtime under user defined disturbance regimes (wind, fire, harvest)
      - User defines species specific attributes 
      - Works well at larger scale and with long lived organisms (TREES) 
   + LIMITATIONS 
      - Limited by base assumptions about sucession etc. 
      - Limited by scale 
      - Designed for landscapes dominated by woody vegetation 
      - Should not be used as a prediction -> instead a range of possible outcomes 
      - Highly random and stochastic 
      
    
## FOREST INVENTORY 

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## FOREST INVENTORY 

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# R: Summary Statistics 


 

